The numbers on California's gay marriage
Today’s LA Times has the first polls I’ve seen showing how California voters feel about the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the gay marriage ban and the pending ballot initiation to re-ban it by amending the Constitution.
The amendment numbers are the only ones that really matter — if it gets voted down, marriage is here to stay.
Currently, 54% of registered voters say they would vote for the amendment. So it passes.
But look again: That’s a pretty low percentage considering it’s a hot-button issue. It’s hard to imagine that number growing significantly before November — if you’re unopposed to same-sex marriage in May, what new information is going to convince you to ban it in November?
I think the vote-against contingent is solid, and the 10% undecideds are genuinely conflicted: uncomfortable with change, but unable to deny someone marriage rights. I don’t think the amendment backers are going to be able to make big inroads with either group.
On the other hand, opponents of the amendment have a lot of opportunities to flip the numbers.
An obvious target is women, who currently stand 58/31 in favor of the amendment. Months of news and feature stories about happy weddings (including Ellen’s) will pull back those numbers. Women will also empathize with the uncertainty of what will happen to those married couples if the amendment passes. (Currently, it’s unclear whether they’ll be annulled or let stand. Nor is it clear whether there will be any court opinion on the issue before November.)
Tell a married woman that the government might revoke her marriage license. That’s the analogy at hand.
California’s absurd ballot initiative process will be another topic of opinion pages. Constitutions are designed to be hard to amend precisely to avoid mobthink, yet California allows amendments with a simple majority vote. A small but vocal group will argue that this amendment reinforces a dangerous precedent. That may be enough to tip some undecideds who are looking for a reason to vote it down.
Governor Schwarzenegger’s disapproval of the initiative will also bleed support. When the state’s top Republican comes out against a conservative measure, it’s hard to rally the moderates.
The LA Times article also brings up the fact that Obama’s presumed candidacy should significantly increase the number of younger voters in November. Although this poll’s numbers don’t show it, there’s a strong generation bias in favor of same-sex marriage. So while Obama himself won’t be a factor, his demographics will.
Lest I paint too rosy a picture, there are many ways proponents of the amendment can maintain their narrow majority.
Confuse the issue. Since it’s hard to gain traction opposing same-sex marriage, claim that the Court’s decision threatens children. Or jobs. Or gas prices. It doesn’t have to make sense.
Showcase flamboyant and/or threatening images. There are inevitably going to be a few weddings with feather boas and assless chaps. Look for those photos to show up in pro-amendment ads.
Point toward the slippery slope. If gays can get married, what’s to stop polygamy? Bestiality? There are rational answers to these questions, but simply asking them is enough to freak people out.
Lie. Claim that the court is requiring churches to perform same-sex marriages. Claim anything. Unlike a human candidate, with a face and a reputation, backers of the amendment can get away with saying anything.
Conservative groups have a lot of money, and a national interest in getting this amendment passed, so I expect them to work hard and spend a lot.
And yet…
I think they can be defeated by narrative. It’s one thing to be against same-sex marriage in principle, but it’s hard to say that Joe in accounting should be forcibly un-married from his partner of six years.
Indeed, the poll found that views on gay marriage were greatly influenced by personal connections. Of those who said they knew a friend, a family member or a co-worker who was gay, nearly half approved of the court’s ruling — more than twice the proportion among those who said they were not acquainted with a gay person. The divide was as stark when it came to the proposed constitutional amendment: 70% of voters who said they did not know a gay person would vote for it, a position taken by just 49% of voters who said they knew a gay person.
A ballot initiative is on shaky ground when it can be undermined by introducing yourself. Being out to family, co-workers and neighbors has never been more important. While opponents of the initiative will need to spend money stopping it, I think it will ultimately hinge on whether voters are able to look gay people in the eye and say, “No, I don’t think you should be allowed to get married.”
4 months ago
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